Jaguars
If the Jaguars were forced to pick an MVP after a quarter of the season, it would definitely have to be Josh Scobee. With two consecutive game winning field goals, Josh has really proved to everyone that he is among one of the best kickers in the league. But to be honest, the Jaguars need to stop winning like that. The Jags need to come out and be the dominant force that they were last year and not let a team come back at any point once they’re up.
This week they are going to be hosting the beat up, Monday Night hangover Pittsburgh Steelers! There is nothing better than playing a beat up team, at your own stadium and under the lights. With this game being nationally televised it is the perfect time to stand out and make a point. The Jaguars will need to keep up the passing game because the Steelers are coming into the game with the fourth best run defense and the second best overall defense. So expect to see Gerrard step in and be the leader like he was last week. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers will be without their number one and two running backs and will need to rely on their passing game to be successful.
On the Pfantasy note, starting either MOJO or Freddy-T in the back field will be a good decision only if one of your starters has a BYE. Matt Jones began the season on pace to shatter his totals from recent years and we’ll be seeing more and more passes as the weeks go by. In fact Matt says “I want to be one of the ‘elite’ receivers in the NFL.” So from here on out expect big things. If you have the Jag’s D this might be a week to start them because the Steelers offensive line is beat up and in the past four games they have allowed 16 sacks (most in the league).
In Order To WIN:
1)K eep Big Ben Hurt - Ben Roethlisberger is still suffering from a thumb injury on the throwing hand and a sore throwing shoulder that was been aggravated again last week. So the Jags need to be physical and come up with lots of blitz schemes.
2) Run-Run-Short pass-Deep Ball — the Jaguars need to keep the Steelers defense guessing and eventually need to develop a deep ball to put up some quick scores. GET UP EARLY, don’t play catch up.
*** Will be dedicating the game to Collier
Dolphins
Congratulations DOLPHANS with the big upset win last time out, the Dolphins have now matched their season total from last year. Can they improve this week? Well it is very possible, but don’t expect the Chargers’ fast defense to allow Ronnie to score five touchdowns.
Maybe give Ricky “high” Williams the opportunity to do it then. The Dolphins have finally got their high powered running game rolling but it was from the QB position on the field, and this week it needs to be from the RB position. The Phins have 6 straight wins against the Chargers and are looking to make it seven and with the Chargers Defense slacking in recent weeks it might be an NFL shoot out, but in that case Pennington will need to throw the ball.
There are five key players on the Dolphins that could start on your Pfantasy team this week: Ronnie or Ricky, Fasano, Ginn, and the defense. Shoot for win number two but don’t overlook San Diego’s high powered offense.
*** Gates has not practiced all week
Buccaneers
Leading all Florida teams with a 3-1 record, the Bucs will be traveling to Denver to face one of the best offenses in the game. Tampa who is also coming off two close games having had a real defensive powerhouse this season and this game they are really going to need to show up with the same intensity. The Broncos are among the top five in total points and have the number one offense. With that they love to throw the deep ball and pound as many points on the scoreboard as they can, no matter the circumstance. In this game it’s going to be very important for the Buc’s to manage the clock and force the Bronco’s to run the ball. On the Pfantasy flavor the Broncos have the third worst defense in the NFL, so expect to see Earnest Graham to have a big day and this might be another week where we see Griese throw the ball at least 50 times.
***Galloway still out
October 4th, 2008 at 3:09 am
I think that Dolphins win was a fluke, man. No chance of a repeat this week.
Wish I was wrong, but I don’t think I am this time.
Good column.
October 4th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
CHeck back a little later….That was a misprint…Go Cowboys
October 5th, 2008 at 3:01 am
Ok, nevermind then. You’re right on with all three picks.
Wish the Dolps could do it again though.
Imagine if they made the Superbowl the season after winning only one game. AHAHAHA
October 5th, 2008 at 10:37 am
I think it’s bullcrap that the Steelers get so much attention and no one offers that to the Jags. The Steelers had a MNF game and a SNF game in the same week? WHY????? Spread the love NBC.
Do the Jags even get a MNF game this year or do we just have to take the crumbs when they come along?
October 5th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Well Gentleman big day in the fantasy world. Sad part is my team is winless. But my pockets are filled. Here are todays plays followed by write ups. Good luck.
5 UNIT PLAY (Interconference Game Of The Year)
New England -3 over SAN FRANCISCO: The Pats are 14-3 ATS on the road off a SU loss, while Bill Bellichick is 13-0 ATS vs the NFC West and he is 11-2 ATS off a SU & ATS loss if facing a .500 or better opponent. The Niners are 1-10 ATS and a dog vs an AFC team when off a non-division game and they are 2-10 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game. I know it’s a bit early in the NFL season for a game of the year, but I may not get a line that looks this good on this kind of play for the rest of the year. THe last time out for the Pats they were thoroughly embarassed by the Miami Dolphins and you can bet that Bill Bellichick rode their asses during the bye week and will have them ready to play today. Had brady not gone down then we would be looking at the Pats favored by at least 9 here. New England was ambushed by Miami’s Wildcat offense last week and they will now be facing a Niners offense that is a bit more conventional. The Niners offense is 15th overall and 15th in scoring, but anyone can do that vs Arizona, Seattle, Detroit and the Saints. Today that offense will take on a Pats defense that has given up their fair share of yards, but they are ranked 8th in the league in points allowed (19.3 ppg). Matt Cassell has struggled this year, but look for him to have a good day vs the Niners 19th ranked passing defense. The Niners defense is also ranked 22nd overall and 21st in points allowed. New England needs this game in the worst way and they always play good off a loss and good off a bye week. Last week the Niners struggled offensively vs a por Saints defense, while the defense also struggled in the game and I don’t see them having a strong game here vs an angry bunch of Pats. New England by at least 2 TD’s here.
4 UNIT PLAY (Power Angle Play Of The Week)
DETROIT +3.5 over Chicago: This one actually has 2 very good Angles to go along with some solid trends. 1st Angle: Winless dogs, playing with rest, from game 4 on out are 21-3-1 ATS since 1990. Angle 2: 0-3 (or worse) division dogs off a bye week are 11-1-1 ATS. Detroit finally fired Matt Millen and I look for a spirited effort from the team today. The Bears played well over their heads last week vs a very good Philadelphia team and they may overlook the winless lions today. The Bears are 3-15 ATS away vs teams that allow 24 or more points and 1-8-1 ATS off a win vs a team off BB losses, while the Lions are 12-0 ATS as division home dogs vs an opponent that allowed 20 or more last week and 13-3 ATS after being outgained by 100+ yards in BB games, plus the dog is 7-1 ATS the last 8 meetings. The Lions will surprise today.
3 Team 6 Point Teaser Of The Week—Indinapolis +3, Tampa Bay +9.5 & Philadelphia PK
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona -1 over BUFFALO: The Bills are 0-9 SU and 2-6-1 ATS before a BYE week, while the Cards are 10-3 ATS as non division home favs and 6-1 ATS vs the AFC. After their opening week thrashing of Seattle, The Bills have been living dangerously, as they needed a late TD to beat Jacksonville and then vs a pathetic Oakland team they needed a last second FG to beat them. Then last week the Bills beat a sorry St. louis team 31-14, but they were outgained by 103 yards in the contest. Last week arizona was embarrassed on the scoreboard, as they lost 56-35, but they still threw for 426 yards in the game and outgained the Jets by 95 yards. The Cards will bounce back today, while the Bills luck will finally run out. Zona by 7 here.
Tennessee -2 over BALTIMORE: Tennessee is 11-2 ATS away after allowing 17 or less for 3+ games in a row and 12-3 ATS away off a home win of 10 or more, while the Ravens are 4-13 ATS vs teams that force 2.5 or more turnovers a game and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss, plus teams are 6-20 ATS the last 26 games following Pittsburgh, with the Ravens going 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after playing Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco still is not playing very well and today he will take on the 8th ranked passing defense, that has allowed just 203 ypg and 1 TD, while picking off 8 passes, plus the Titans are ranked tops in sacks. The Titans have not missed a beat since losing vince young and they should be able to come up with enough plays vs this tough defense to get a solid road win here. I don’t see the Ravens getting to double digits in this one as the Tennessee defense will come up big and force Flacco into a ton of mistakes. Tennessee pulls away in the second half here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Indianapolis/ Houston Over 48.5: The Over is 13-1 when the Colts are away off an upset loss to a division rival and 7-0 when they failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, while the Over is 10-0 when Houston faces a division rival and 10-3 vs teams that allow 61% or more pass completions. Thelast 6 in this series has all gone over the total, with an average of 55.2 ppg being scored. Neither offense has gotten on track this year, but both defenses have been pretty bad and I see plenty of points in Houston today.
3 Team 6 Point Teaser— Atlanta +9.5, Kansas City +15.5 & Tampa Bay/ Denver Over 40.5
I ALSO LIKE
Indianapolis -3 over HOUSTON
1 UNIT PLAY
Tampa Bay +3.5 over Denver: The Broncos are 0-10 ATS after a game in which they gained 6+ yards per play and 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as a fav, while the Bucs are 16-5 ATS vs teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass. The Denver defense is trully horrible and it is taking on a Tampa offense that has found some confidence. We also note in this one that teams have gone over the total in their first 4 games of the season are 1-14-2 ATS. The Broncos offense is one of the best but the Bucs will slow them down enough to come up with a big win here.
October 5th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
OH MY GOD
Miami 10 - SD 3
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE?
October 5th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
17-10
October 5th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Maybe i meant to put MIami but when you said something i wanted to change it…. Go Phins
October 5th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
They should have invited Dan Marino to come play a down.
October 5th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
I am done with the Jags…Until they prove to us htey have a defense…its pathetic
October 6th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Who followed my picks?
October 6th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
7-2 not too bad on the week! HUH?